But Mr. Colson goes much farther. By suggesting that Watergate was a result of America's having strayed from God, he avoids such questions as that of Watergate's threat to constitutional government and of establishing criteria for political morality in America. Indeed, by viewing all political compromise and frustration - the entire political process - as deviation from the true path of the Gospel, Mr. Colson moves in the direction of a totalitarian theocracy. Part of that ''dark age'' is the wildness of children and their flouting of parental authority.
The fundamentalists' struggle to control an ever-changing world is nowhere more evident than in their approach to child-rearing. Dobson, who refers to himself as a Christian psychologist. Over the past two decades he has written at least 10 books, including ''Dare to Discipline'' Tyndale House Publishers , which has sold well over two million copies since its publication in Dobson is a formidable entrepreneur, with nationally syndicated radio programs, film series, cassettes and a nonprofit ministry that offers free pamphlets on such matters as ''Busy Husbands and Lonely Wives.
Child-parent respect must be a ''two-way street,'' infants and toddlers require ''patience,'' bed-wetting is involuntary and requires reassurance rather than punishment, adolescents should be treated ''as adults'' and never humiliated. At the same time, he writes, ''Permissiveness has not just been a failure; it's been a disaster. View all New York Times newsletters. More than that, Mr. Dobson's vision of child-rearing is one of continuous warfare, in which the parents must be always on guard, with defiance of any kind the signal for parental action.
Dobson even implies, by his choice of words, that the child is a wild beast: ''You have drawn a line in the dirt, and the child has deliberately flopped his big hairy toe across it. Who is going to win? Dobson reveals much when he slips briefly into a reminiscence about his own upbringing. His mother, it seems, was understanding about most things but absolutely intolerant of his ''sassiness'' - so much so that when he was guilty of it, she would strike him with ''whatever she could get in her hands - a shoe, a belt, and on one especially memorable occasion, a girdle'' whose ''multitude of straps and buckles.
One should not underestimate Mr. Dobson's appeal: he both rides, and makes a considerable contribution to, an authoritarian wave in American life. That includes his embrace of a version of behavior therapy: his heroes are E. Thorndike and B. Skinner, and he considers the law of reinforcement ''the most magnificent theory ever devised for the control of behavior. In his work he often refers to both the philosophy and the organization founded by Phyllis and David York and known as Toughlove. Dobson has recently served on Presidential task forces and commissions on family policy.
The Dobson phenomenon tells us all too much about where we are as a culture. Dobson has emerged not only as fundamentalism's most influential figure in family matters but as its quintessential authoritarian voice. That voice can come close to sadism. The need for total control of children is partly a response to constant anxiety over the eternal consequences of losing control, of losing faith. Those consequences are ultimate. Nonbelievers will be doubly condemned: first in their death and separation from God during the millennium, and then in their ''second death'' after the Final Judgment when, according to Scripture, they will be thrown into the lake of fire.
Because it deals with a form of biblical genocide and survival, end-time theology requires a strong ideological position regarding individual death. Here the literature addresses the danger that the death of friends or loved ones will bring about a grief that leads to loss of faith.
The reigning best seller of this genre is ''Good Grief,'' a pamphlet-sized book published by Fortress Press and written by Granger E. Westberg, a minister who has worked closely with physicians and taught on the medical faculties of the University of Chicago and the University of Illinois.
As in other fundamentalist books on human relations, Mr. Westberg combines a certain amount of psychological sophistication much of the book is based on a classical psychiatric paper by Erich Lindemann on ''Symptomatology and Management of Acute Grief'' with an insistent scriptural base: for example, the biblical verse ''Jesus wept'' is invoked to ''describe a man who, when grief came, was able to weep. Westberg provides scriptural illustrations of experiencing and overcoming doubt: David in the Psalms ''I say to God, my rock, why hast Thou forgotten me?
Graham invokes the anthropologist Geoffrey Gorer, the historian Philippe Aries, and the psychiatrist Elisabeth Kubler-Ross in chatty fashion as he develops a progressive position about dealing with death, but has no qualms about contrasting Socrates' death, which ''saved no one, not even himself'' with that of Christ, whose death ''can save everyone who believes in Him. Graham supports moderate positions on passive euthanasia, or the right to request that extreme measures not be taken to prolong life when one is moribund.
But he cites Deuteronomy ''I put to death and I bring to life'' to show that man is not normally the master of life and death. All paths lead to the promise of a literal form of immortality - hence a chapter on ''Believer's Death Benefits'' that includes a section on ''New Bodies for Old. In ''Facing Death'' there is a brief sequence - three pages in a book of pages - entitled ''Not Everyone Will Die. Graham becomes what Don DeLillo calls ''an aphorist of last things'' and enters the realm of end time.
He finds the 20th-century fundamentalist principle of the ''Rapture'' in the words of Paul: ''We will not all sleep, but we will all be changed - in a flash, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trumpet. Graham demurs from predicting when God will choose to bring about the Second Coming, he ''cannot help being excited [by] the rapidity with which the announced signs of the end times seem to be happening. Graham's death manual of the details of what awaits those not eligible for Rapture, but that apocalyptic dimension of fundamentalism, even when said softly, grounds the ideology of the movement.
The world is not far from ending, and the ''signs'' spoken of in the Scriptures are to be found in the threat of nuclear extinction as well as in general moral deterioration - drugs, crime, pornography, adultery and a general turning away from God. The best-selling popularizer of these ideas is Hal Lindsey, whose book ''The Late Great Planet Earth'' Zondervan Publishing House , published in , has sold more than 10 million copies in the United States and has come to be a kind of text for end-time fundamentalism. In the teaching practice, there is so much time in inscrutable silence.
This is useful and respectful. The transparency thing is an effort at generosity, for someone who prefers to hoard experience in private. No other human self can rightly take your power, because every small self is just a process, a vehicle for relationship. A self is a nice way to get around reality for the short term. In that spirit, here is more of what things look like from the perspective of the dream-watcher. Stories from the small self, dreamed on the last three moons…. The first full moon back from Mysore, the last image on the astral plane as I wake is a geometric rose.
It burns in from deep space, through the half-awake space, and then just sits there behind my not-yet-open eyes.
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Then, careful not to get too much in my body, I glide next door to the yoga room and etch the rose on the back of a notecard. Because you know what? Texting a line drawing to five ashtangis on a full moon morning is a straight up call-and-response move. Line drawings are not innocent in this tribe: they are on a bee line for the BODY.
The idea arcs back to me over the compass rose from east to west as they wake: Tattoo? Meantime, an image search. Turns out my subconscious has copped a midcentury Mackintosh Rose. A Christ symbol. Given my story — a belief at age 3 that Jesus lived in my heart, and a long adolescence spent pissed off at him — the dream feels like some part of me forcing the issue. God, who is less cool than Jesus?
My dad chose the middle name Sharon, for the rose of Sharon, which grows on the fertile crescent plane where they prophecy the battle of Armageddon. Who names their firstborn after a war zone? Fundamentalists, I thought, and changed the name at age At age 20, moonlight bartender me already had an Irish whiskey surname, and thought that should be the chaser for a stout middle name. Christ consciousness out, beer consciousness in.
They were removed from it. I hope never to see a spend the night here, pick you up, and go on. I'll wake up and rub you out! I don't know. Somewhere a vanishing laugh- Ye gods, cried his censor. He managed, after a time, to cook This he did. We're not as sanguine about its Springfield Massachusetts development, seeing too much saturation around it and a muddled policy toward gaming expansion by the state between commercial and tribal development players.
The undermining started right away. Then he loses his mind. The steam of profanity is unbroken, Spanish-accented, passionate as hell, and actually transcendent. Now the rose line resurfaces over my life. That is what the Rose of Sharon does. She goes underground, through centuries of grassroots conspiracy, passed along the esoteric way. The rose carries the inside jokes that drive grail lore: We are one, and ecstatically so where two or more are gathered in the name. Also, when the bud that pulses in the middle of your brain takes bloom, then you snuff out the small self and light a fire in your heart.
Furthermore, apocalypse is when something comes from nothing, and again when it returns. And ALL of that remains sub-rosa only for us drunks until we hold still enough to see through the dream. Rebirth is annihilation, and it is a joke. So here I am, re-changing my name and wondering who is the right artist to put this body under the rose.
Great Lakes land is full of hermits and contemplative communities. I spent the first five years here searching for the ideal solo retreat, striking out with the hippies, the Hindus, and the Buddhists. Last year I finally went to the mystic Christians in a place called Three Rivers.
But these ones have their own vortex, plus great taste landscape architecture. They also like the dark side and use dreams to get there. The one hard thing about taking annual retreat with Shinzen is the short nights — monastics know how to use sleep deprivation to quicken classical awakening. But a Mysore teacher on break from work should be banking sleep. We found the percentage of visitors to casinos who simply do not play at all is relatively small and tends to be lodged in the convention sector. What scares the industry these days isn't no play visitors but less than usual play visitors to be expected from people who do have the cultural coding discussed above.
An economic crash and subsequent recession will naturally impact total revenues-but not to the extent of destroying the core rational for the business to exist and by extension, its ability to continue churning out revenues and earnings even in terrible down cycles. Let's look at the impacts of financial crashes and bubbles on total gaming revenues through crashes and recessions. Note: We are not factoring intra-industry forces per se such as saturation, new jurisdictions opening, mature ones with failing properties, new jurisdictions stand alone revenue gains.
Our aim here is to show the relative resiliency of the gaming consumer through years when macro factors heavily impacted the greater economy or were just flat, or improving. We believe these basic numbers show this: While economic behavior is certainly moderated by crashes and bubbles bursting, there are cultural codings nuances that enhance the penchant to gamble that are irrefutably stable. This is clear in a market like Macau. It skyrocketed in the teeth of the global financial crisis first because China was still in double digit growth modes on GDP and other indices', but also because the culture coding of Chinese and their affinity to gamble kept demand well ahead of supply.
The aftermath of the huge crackdown and dramatic declines in Macau GGR are largely due to government policy shifts -- not pure macro economic factors related to the slowing of the Chinese economy in general. Less money in less pockets counts of course -- but the cultural coding of 1.
No problem here. However the run to safety will be accompanied by higher trading ranges than what might be bought in the casino sector. That's why we believe that with their proven resilience-over time gaming stocks will command the attention of savvy investors who will see real bargains in the quality gaming shares we've included in our theoretical portfolio here. Includes LV Strip so back that number out of this total.
Also does not include tribal gaming as they are not public companies. These numbers clearly show the downdraft was entirely government triggered.
Here's our "sleep well at night" portfolio of gaming shares should a major correction happen by Q2 And drew its conclusions on volatility based on a complexity of analysis of those numbers among many other factors. So we are assuming the prices of these stocks cycling through a volatile time window: from a crash, to a bottoming, to a recovery.
So no surprise, they are our two choices for Macau heavy stocks. Both companies are Macau dominant, with good Vegas properties. Both shares have taken an immense beating because of the Macau downdraft that is just beginning, very slowly to ebb. But ebb it will. It has the culture coding on its side and we believe that will show up in '16 when Wynn Palace and LVS Parisian opens by mid to late Ironically the market likes MGM because its Macau exposure is relatively small compared to its two competitors.
But this sentiment will change when its new Cotai property opens next year. Both companies have bet wisely in US gaming. They have viably scaled footprints in Las Vegas and ambitions in the US east coast. Both have strong, highly focused managements with proven, solid stewardship-though it has been challenged by some observers that don't agree with our assessment. Fair enough-however, we know both managements in terms of their people and evaluate their operations based on our hands on experience in the industry. These guys have made their share of mistakes for certain. Who hasn't? But in our industry-centric view, they still outshine most of their competitors when it comes to their track records of sound strategic vision, creativity in marketing and design, commitment to dividends through adversity and capacity to manage leverage through crises.
Imminent earnings release: We do not forecast earnings, leaving that to those who do it for a living. For our purposes our rationale for a positive call on LVS does not hang on the results of a given quarter miss or beat. Steve Wynn's public calls for Chinese officialdom to shape up has triggered a defensive response from government.
And it is always to be noted what governments say in private has very little to do with what they do in public. The ever face sensitive Chinese measure their responses to criticism carefully. And the last thing we could expect is for them to answer Wynn's forceful critique by saying, Oh sure Steve, now we get it. You're right on the money pal, here's a list of five great things were going to do in the next few months to make you happy. And for your Christmas list here's the tables you requested from Santa for your stocking.
Bet on positive moves for Macau definitely coming -- only all will be announced when and how it fits their larger agenda. They can't allow themselves to be seen as marching to anyone else's tune but their own. So all they can say is boys, behave.
Our rationale: This company is a recent REIT conversion and the spike in its shares over the last year was largely attributable to that transaction. Going forward with the REIT trade behind it, we like the general direction of the company and think the stock is well priced to withstand an economic shudder and move ahead. We like the management's prudent aggressiveness in addressing all the current market factors in the regional gaming market.
They have particularly performed well in the Midwest-a highly saturated area. Their Louisiana property has a lot of the non-gaming richness of many integrated resorts and it shows in their results.