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The Catalan process for secession, or independence, began in a political sense in , though its root causes are much deeper. Read more: Catalonia's cultural struggle against Madrid goes back centuries. Opinion polls aside, there has never been a majority support for independence in any regional election held since , leading to a questionable legitimacy. The Spanish authorities, the main political parties and the government have repeatedly declared that the separation of a part of Spain from the national territory is illegal.
From and with more intensity from , Catalan institutions embarked on an intense international lobbying campaign to obtain international support and achieve the aim of becoming a new member state of the European Union. These three elements, ambivalent social and political support, a state explicitly hostile to any attempt at separation and a complete absence of international support, have led to the almost complete defeat for Catalan independence. The capture and imprisonment of Puigdemont symbolically closes this phase.
Between and , the Catalan movement for independence displayed extraordinary capacity for mobilisation, managing to bring a million people onto the streets of Barcelona almost every year. The movement was peaceful, optimistic and celebratory, confident that separation from Spain was eminently achievable and imminent. However, this relentlessly upbeat outlook seemed to prevent recognition of hard political reality.
In spite of public statements from a range of international leaders, including the European Union, supporting the continued unity of Spain, the movement told itself that when the time came, recognition for Catalonia was inevitable. While arguably it had little choice, the EU has backed Spain in the Catalan dispute.
One consequence has been a eurosceptic turn within the Catalan independence movement over perceived betrayal by Brussels. The Catalan movement for independence, as well as a number of internal and strategic errors, seriously misjudged the interest and willingness of the EU to countenance the break up of Spain. Yet, the EU is an alliance of states. The EU has been through repeated crises since and it seems astonishing that the leaders of Catalan independence thought the bloc might be supportive of further disruption.
While accommodation might have been made for Scotland, this was because the British state was prepared to accept the separation of 5m Scots from a Britain of almost 65m should they vote for it in a referendum. Read more: Why independence movements in Scotland and elsewhere are tongue-tied over Catalonia.