This was consistently maintained through the forecast sequence with a significant risk of coastal flooding indicated 4—5 days ahead by the storm surge ensemble.
The surge ensemble continued to provide useful guidance as the lead time narrowed, showing a reduction in spread increased confidence as the uncertainty reduced. This was very close to the later observation. However, the alert level was not breached at Plymouth, suggesting that the additional impact of wave action was a key factor in coastal flooding.
The wave period was 8—10s with a southerly direction.
The weather was lovely, and we arrived about two hours before one of the highest tides of the year - perfect timing. Consequently, even a small change or break will cause fish to move from one location to another. Marcy — Nova Scotia — Bay of Fundy has higher tides Further swell waves affected coasts along Chesil Beach, although degradation of sea defences from previous storms and insufficient time for repair may have added to the level of impact. The island and road to it is national trust and can be visited by appointment only. The two forded sections at Goodshelter are distinct and offer two completely different splashdowns. At high tide, the entire area is covered in water, thus classifying the route as a 'wet road' and no doubt, providing a challenge to 4x4s - if they survive the salt water!
The waves increased in height, and veered in the overnight period, after the highest tides had passed. Wave heights of 7.
There was a very significant south coast storm surge — around 1. Near record tides were reported by eye witnesses in places due to the surge and wind and wave action. Coastal flooding was reported along the English Channel. Further loss of the railway embankment at Dawlish was experienced, and there was severe damage to the tourist tramline along the Axe estuary on Tuesday evening, with water overtopping the embankment. This tramline lies upon a railway embankment built in Seawater also overtopped the estuary road at Axmouth, and an unusually high level is indicated by wrack marks Figure 10 , and initial eyewitness accounts suggest such water levels have not been seen at least since the s, although further investigations are necessary to confirm this.
Tide gauges at Plymouth and Weymouth do not seem to have captured the local surge in Lyme Bay on this occasion. Further swell waves affected coasts along Chesil Beach, although degradation of sea defences from previous storms and insufficient time for repair may have added to the level of impact. The surge ensemble model had indicated the risk of a significant surge several days ahead of the event.
South and west coast storm surges have common predictive characteristics. These were described by Lennon who identified a number of indicators that may be used to predict surges in southwest Britain. These include a secondary deep depression approaching the UK with a critical speed of around 40kn. However, Lennon's strict criteria are not always necessary for significant surge events Procter and Flather, , and operationally use of the criteria has been superseded by more accurate numerical modelling of sea states and storm surges, for instance in the CS3X deterministic and surge ensemble models.
As shown above, for several significant storm surge events the model suite provided good early notification of significant surges at least three days in advance and very good guidance closer to the events. As an example, for ideal conditions a surface wind speed of 60kn would require the low centre to move at around 30kn in the same direction as the waves. The low pressure systems described above generally had speeds of movement across the Atlantic close to 40kn, but reduced in speed as they matured and approached the British Isles, becoming near stationary in some cases.
The longer period swell waves generally arrived later, although at times correlating with subsequent high tides, giving spectacular displays as they broke against cliffs and beaches, for instance in Cornwall and Portland. With the January events, damage from the storm surge was enhanced by long period, high energy waves that developed in the Atlantic and were driven ashore by southwesterly storms.
The unusual frequency of these surge and storm events also meant there was limited time for repairs or mitigation work before the next storm arrived. In some locations, such as at Chesil Beach, the degraded defences led to potentially more significant impacts in subsequent events. Such complexity calls for an integrated approach to modelling of tides, storm surges and waves. It is uncertain whether these coastal flood events can be attributed directly to climate change Slingo et al. As sea levels continue to rise, the frequency of coastal flooding is likely to increase in future years from storm surges.
Thanks to the two reviewers for additional comments. Volume 70 , Issue 2. If you do not receive an email within 10 minutes, your email address may not be registered, and you may need to create a new Wiley Online Library account.
Poole Harbour Tide Times - free 7 day tides for Poole Harbour with older tides, only) can be viewed as BST or UTC using the switch at the top of the table. Poole Harbour Tide Times - 7 day tidal predictions for Poole Harbour including historical data, sunrise & sunset times and moon phases.
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Figure 1 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint. Comparison between the synoptic pattern and development of the February east coast flood event, versus the December event. Figure 2 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint. Ensemble tidal surge graphs for Lowestoft left and North Shields right. The surge residual driven by analysis data is coloured in cyan, while the raw observations residual from the tide gauge at that site are in black. Two versions of this alert threshold are shown: the solid line is calculated using the more reliable harmonic tide prediction, whilst the dotted line shows the tide predicted by the CS3X storm surge model.
Flooding reported On the North Sea coast parts of Newcastle's quayside were underwater at high tide as the Tyne estuary overflowed. Comparing the December event with January The December events correlate reasonably well with those of Figure 3 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint. Wave data for Scarweather WaveNet Site Showing: top peak direction; centre Tpeak, the dominant wave period in seconds there are gaps in the data ; and bottom the significant wave height the mean height of the highest third of waves.
It is located on the west coast of Gower Peninsular. Geology,rocks at causeway over to Worms Head,Gower. Ainsdale beach littered with shellfish, starfish and shells after recent storm force winds off the Irish Sea. The beaches around Merseyside were covered in marine litter brought in by blustery northwest winds which swept across the coastline, reaching at times in excess of 30 knots.
While such events are a natural occurrence the 1. Lifeguard information on Marazion beach, Cornwall. St Michael's Mount in the background. High winds have been hitting parts of Scotland and with a high tide, the waves crashed against the sea defences in Arbroath, Scotland, UK, on Sunday October 26, UK Weather. First opened in , it spans a length of 1, metres 3, ft and is the second longest in Great Britain. It suits you to a T.
I noted the mention of eels.
I recall being about four years old and having some eels to eat. I recall throwing up in a bucket near the seaside restaurant. Thank you for this, Hilary. Growing up in the Midwest US, and not even particularly close to the Great Lakes, I never paid much attention to tides until last year when I moved to California.
Now I live a mile from the beach and am always checking for low tides so the wet sand will be great for a jog. Somebody ate my comment from yesterday! Anyway, I was talking about how great that first picture is, and how I also love collecting the shells as I wander the beach. We've had some spectacular tides at our place on one of the feeder creeks to the Chesapeake. Good memories! I've heard about the tides in England. They can be scary with how fast they come in. I don't we have this issue in the States, but I could be wrong.
T for tourism is so true in England. How are you holding up?
You are really amazing to do these posts and to come with such interesting ideas. Tammy — yes it can smell of seaweed or rotting fish at low-tide sometimes Marcy — Nova Scotia — Bay of Fundy has higher tides Yes I wanted to remind us all of the old trades — I imagine everyone who left for the States would have had a trade of sorts, or were being persecuted..
I hope you can find out more about your ancestor — sounds an interesting person to trace.. Tasha — yes Cockles and Mussels alive, alive O! I must find out if the tides vary depending on the latitude we are Lynn — they are there Susan — yes we used to use the tide tables quite often.. The Langley painting shows Newlyn as it was then and as it is now Jo — I thought of you when I wrote the post!! Your father was a real man of the seas.. Presumably the NC barges are used along the shores and not really for trading Rosie — yes I had to put the Thalatta photo in — she is beautiful Julie — seems odd to think the Roman Emperors would be the same as us!
Lots of stories could come from the tides and the rocky shores Sandie — the Bay of Fundy has larger tidal drops Sophie — I agree tides can be very scary Ah yes walking to the sea can be a long way at times Lee — I expect Caesar was forewarned.. I wonder if he thought Poseidon worked hard all the time — night and day?! Glad you enjoyed the T post though Susan — yes creatures adapt to their particular environment I wonder if Caesar or the other Romans gaped and gauped at the rising tides Thanks so much everyone..
Patsy — as per my email.. Alex — the pull of the moon is pretty strong Eddie — good to see you again.. Karen — tide patterns, wind strength et al Julia — yes we can feel the pull of the moon too Janice — I think all the Romans would have thought — oh crumbs over that water Little did they know I loved going to Cornwall to feel the sea air from Newlyn Harbour I too have been on a memory trawl during my ABCs Cindy — good to meet you..
I hope you find the song, and will let us know?! Gary — three in the morning Yes — eels are very rich Matt — rethink on life by the ocean.. Thanks re the science bit Tina — sorry about the blog-eating comment worm! Kids and shell gathering Sara — we certainly have interesting tides here — they can be pretty dangerous in places — the seas are not to be taken for granted.
T for tourism Thanks so much everyone